FacebookTwitter

HAI

Unless otherwise indicated, the material below has not been prepared by Van Eck Associates Corporation or HardAssetsInvestor.com.
Neither assumes any liability for any content on a third party website or material prepared by a third party.

Brad's Desktop

   |
Poor Nothing special Worth watching Pretty cool Awesome! 36 Ratings
Rate this article
The Good, The Not-So-Bad, And The Ugly
Written by Brad Zigler   
February 21, 2008 10:59 am EST


The best of the seasoned commodity funds - that is, ETFs with a track record at least a year long - are above their 200-day moving averages by nearly 23%.

The Five Top-Performing Commodity ETFs (The "Good") 

 

Name
 Ticker  Holdings % +/-200d MA
PowerShares DB Agriculture DBA Futures +29.67
iShares Silver Trust SLV Physicals +24.67
PowerShares DB Silver DBS Futures +20.12
iShares COMEX Gold Trust IAU Physicals +19.72
streetTRACKS Gold Shares GLD Physicals +19.68
Average     +22.77
 

The wind has clearly been at the backs of precious metals funds, whether they hold physical metal or futures, which have been bested only by the senior agricultural futures portfolio.

When you think about it, not much separates the best and the worst commodity ETFs performance-wise. Broad-based commodity index ETFs like the iShares S&P GSCI Trust (NYSE Arca: GSG) and the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (AMEX: DBC) occupy a middle ground, 15-18% above their 200-day moving averages.

Among the worst performers, only one portfolio - the bearish MACROShares oil fund - is actually in negative territory. Oddly, the complementary MACROShares bullish oil fund is also among the laggards. This seeming anomaly owes more to the construction of the portfolios than the performance of oil (see "Caveat Emptor").

The Five Worst-Performing Commodity ETFs (The "Not-So-Bad, Really") 

 

Name
 Ticker  Holdings % +/-200d MA
MacroShares Oil Down DCR Treasuries/Repos -6.69
PowerShares DB Base Metals DBB Futures +2.40
MacroShares Oil UP UCR Treasuries/Repos +4.08
Market Vectors Gold Miners GDX Stocks +11.90
Market Vectors Steel ETF SLX Stocks +14.54
Average     +5.25

The slackers roster holds another singular feature: it lists only one portfolio that actually holds commodity derivatives, a testament to the monolithic nature of the asset class.  

And that's where the ugly comes in. Someday the commodities tower will topple, leaving imprudent investors who've overspent on commodities vulnerable to volatility at best, and deep losses at worst. No one knows for sure when the tide may turn against commodities, only that it will. Tread cautiously.



 

 
Subscribe to Our Weekly Newsletter 
First Comment

Comments (0)



Post a Comment

Comment
(Limit 2,000
characters) 
*
Name: *
E-mail: *
Home page:

(optional)

Type in the displayed characters
Email follow-up comments to my e-mail address
 


Terms of Use
The HardAssetsInvestor.com message board and comment features are designed to facilitate thoughtful discussion of the biggest issues impacting commodity investors. All comments should be respectful. Insults and profanity are not permitted. The editor reserves the right to remove comments at his/her discretion.

 

Related Articles »

Did you like this article? Then you may be interested in:

 

Commodities Data

September 08, 2010 03:40 PM EST

  Loading data ...
 

Weekly Commodities Poll

Do you think futures-based ETFs have a significant effect on commodities prices?

 

Related Articles »

Did you like this article? Then you may be interested in:

 

Seminal Papers »