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The best of the seasoned commodity funds - that is, ETFs with a track record at least a year long - are above their 200-day moving averages by nearly 23%.
The Five Top-Performing Commodity ETFs (The "Good")
|
Name |
Ticker |
Holdings |
% +/-200d MA |
| PowerShares DB Agriculture |
DBA |
Futures |
+29.67 |
| iShares Silver Trust |
SLV |
Physicals |
+24.67 |
| PowerShares DB Silver |
DBS |
Futures |
+20.12 |
| iShares COMEX Gold Trust |
IAU |
Physicals |
+19.72 |
| streetTRACKS Gold Shares |
GLD |
Physicals |
+19.68 |
| Average |
|
|
+22.77 |
The wind has clearly been at the backs of precious metals funds, whether they hold physical metal or futures, which have been bested only by the senior agricultural futures portfolio.
When you think about it, not much separates the best and the worst commodity ETFs performance-wise. Broad-based commodity index ETFs like the iShares S&P GSCI Trust (NYSE Arca: GSG) and the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (AMEX: DBC) occupy a middle ground, 15-18% above their 200-day moving averages.
Among the worst performers, only one portfolio - the bearish MACROShares oil fund - is actually in negative territory. Oddly, the complementary MACROShares bullish oil fund is also among the laggards. This seeming anomaly owes more to the construction of the portfolios than the performance of oil (see "Caveat Emptor").
The Five Worst-Performing Commodity ETFs (The "Not-So-Bad, Really")
|
Name |
Ticker |
Holdings |
% +/-200d MA |
| MacroShares Oil Down |
DCR |
Treasuries/Repos |
-6.69 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals |
DBB |
Futures |
+2.40 |
| MacroShares Oil UP |
UCR |
Treasuries/Repos |
+4.08 |
| Market Vectors Gold Miners |
GDX |
Stocks |
+11.90 |
| Market Vectors Steel ETF |
SLX |
Stocks |
+14.54 |
| Average |
|
|
+5.25 |
The slackers roster holds another singular feature: it lists only one portfolio that actually holds commodity derivatives, a testament to the monolithic nature of the asset class.
And that's where the ugly comes in. Someday the commodities tower will topple, leaving imprudent investors who've overspent on commodities vulnerable to volatility at best, and deep losses at worst. No one knows for sure when the tide may turn against commodities, only that it will. Tread cautiously.
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